未来的气候变化增加了物种的脆弱性,并为中国的生物多样性保护提供了新的机会
Xuede Dong1, Jirui Gong1, Weiyuan Zhang1
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, MOE Engineering Research Center of Desertification and Blown-sand Control, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Journal of environmental management
|May 7, 2025
概括
气候变化严重威胁着中国的生物多样性,两动物面临着最大的息地丧失. 保护工作必须优先考虑脆弱和有机会的地区,特别是在中国北部和南部,以减轻灭绝风险.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 气候变化对生物多样性的影响
- 种类分布建模 种类分布建模
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球陆地生物多样性构成重大威胁.
- 了解跨分类群体的差异性脆弱性对于有效的保护规划至关重要.
- 保护战略必须既应对气候变化的威胁,又应对潜在的机遇.
研究的目的:
- 评估中国哺乳动物,爬行动物,两动物,鸟类和植物的气候变化脆弱性.
- 在气候变化情景下确定当前和未来 (2050年代) 适合的息地分布.
- 通过分析脆弱地区和机会地区,精确确定保护优先事项.
主要方法:
- 利用物种分布模型来模拟当前和未来的息地适宜性.
- 分析了到2050年代中国五个主要分类群体的预计息地损失和增加.
- 对脆弱性,机会和威胁状况的综合空间分析,以确定保护优先事项.
主要成果:
- 预计到20世纪50年代将出现大量息地丧失,两动物 (26.8%) 和哺乳动物 (16.8%) 最容易受到影响.
- 息地丧失受物种威胁状况的影响.
- 高脆弱性地区集中在北部,西北部和青海-西藏地区;高机会地区位于南部. 优先领域占中国面积的11.8%.
结论:
- 中国的分类学群体对气候变化表现出不同的反应,需要量身定制的保护方法.
- 保护规划应侧重于综合脆弱和机会区域,以减少物种灭绝风险.
- 社会经济因素 (优先领域的人类发展/足迹指数较低) 为保护带来了实施挑战.
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