盆地间的水转移将在未来面临更大的干旱风险
Lichuan Wang1, Fan He2, Yong Zhao2
1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China.
Journal of environmental management
|May 7, 2025
概括
气候变化增加了盆地间水转移 (IBWT) 的复合干旱风险. 未来的预测显示,风险显著增加,特别是对于已建成的项目,需要适应性水资源管理和弹性IBWT设计.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 环境工程 环境工程
背景情况:
- 盆地间的水转移 (IBWT) 对水安全至关重要,但易受气候变化影响的影响,如流量减少和极端干旱.
- 气候变化加剧了干旱状况,对现有和计划中的IBWT项目的可靠性和有效性提出了重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 从1965年到2100年,探索过去和未来IBWT项目 (IBWTP) 在中国主要河流流域 (黄,,海,长江) 的复合干旱风险.
- 评估不同气候变化场景 (SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5) 对IBWTPs水文干旱风险的影响.
- 为适应性水资源管理和弹性IBWT设计提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用最新的CMIP6气候数据和水文模型来预测未来的排水变化,并计算标准化排水指数 (SRI).
- 采用二维和三维法来评估复合水文干旱风险.
- 根据各种共享社会经济途径 (SSP) 分析了历史 (1965-2100) 和未来的干旱风险.
主要成果:
- 历史上复合干旱风险从5.29%到25.64%不等,黄河流域 (YeRB) 和海河流域 (HaRB) 的风险最高.
- 未来的预测表明,在所有情景中,干旱强度显著增加,特别是在SSP1-2.6下的河流域 (HuRB) 和长江流域 (YaRB) (高达28.42%).
- 建成的IBWTP在所有情景下都面临着不断升级的复合干旱风险,而计划中的项目显示温和增长,强调了对弹性设计的需求.
结论:
- 气候变化显著提高了中国主要盆地的盆地间转水项目的复合干旱风险.
- 适应性水资源管理策略和强大的IBWT设计对于减轻未来干旱影响和确保水安全至关重要.
- 该研究强调了气候情景对干旱风险的影响差异,强调需要主动规划和基础设施适应.
相关概念视频
Responses to Drought and Flooding
10.5K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
10.5K
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
25.0K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
25.0K
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
28
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
28
Design Example: Design of an Irrigation Channel
31
Trapezoidal channels are widely used in irrigation systems due to their cost-effectiveness and efficiency in conveying water. Trapezoidal channels feature a flat bottom and sloping sides, making them stable and easier to construct compared to other shapes. The bottom width and side slope ratio are determined based on the required flow capacity and site conditions. The side slope is kept gentle for unlined channels to prevent soil erosion.Hydraulic parameters in channel design include the flow...
31
Underflow Gates
27
Underflow gates are vital for controlling water flow in irrigation canals. The three main types of underflow gates — vertical, radial, and drum gates — serve different purposes while ensuring effective flow management. Vertical gates move up and down, generating a free-flowing water jet; radial gates pivot to regulate the flow; and drum gates rotate for precise adjustments. The flow through these gates is influenced by downstream conditions, resulting in free or drowned outflow.Free and...
27
Conservation of Mass in Moving, Nondeforming Control Volume
661
Stormwater detention basins are essential in managing runoff during heavy rainfall, particularly in urban areas where impervious surfaces increase the risk of flooding. Understanding the conservation of mass in these systems allows engineers to optimize basin performance, balancing inflow, outflow, and water storage.
In the context of a detention basin, the conservation of mass states that the total mass of water entering the basin must equal the mass leaving the basin plus any accumulation of...
In the context of a detention basin, the conservation of mass states that the total mass of water entering the basin must equal the mass leaving the basin plus any accumulation of...
661


