模拟肯塔基州农村多路段的摩托车撞车频率
Bharat Kumar Pathivada1, Arunabha Banerjee1, Kirolos Haleem1
1Center for Transportation Research (CTR), School of Engineering & Applied Sciences, Western Kentucky University, 1906 College Heights Blvd, EBS 2122, Bowling Green, KY 42101, United States.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|May 7, 2025
概括
摩托车安全性能函数 (SPF) 为肯塔基州农村道路开发,比较了流行前和流行后的撞车数据. 调查结果显示,曲线和肩膀宽度等因素影响了碰撞风险,为目标安全改进提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 交通安全工程 交通安全工程
- 交通运输规划 交通运输规划
- 事故分析 事故分析
背景情况:
- 摩托车事故占美国交通死亡人数的很大一部分,但对其频率的研究是有限的.
- 开发特定的安全性能功能 (SPF) 对于了解和减轻农村道路上的摩托车撞车风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为肯塔基州的农村多车道段开发摩托车碰撞特定的安全性能功能 (SPF).
- 分析COVID-19流行前 (2015-2019) 和COVID-19流行后 (2020-2022) 期间之间的撞车频率变化.
- 为了确定影响摩托车撞车频率的关键道路特征.
主要方法:
- 收集了八年的摩托车事故数据 (2015-2022年) 和特定地点的特征.
- 拟合并比较了康威-马克斯韦尔-波森 (CMP) 和异质康威-马克斯韦尔-波森 (HTCMP) 模型,考虑了低分散.
- 使用适合性和预测绩效指标评估的模型.
主要成果:
- 异质的康威-马克斯韦尔-波森 (HTCMP) 模型在两个时期都显示出高于CMP模型的性能.
- 疫情前:水平曲线和未划分的道路增加了摩托车撞车频率.
- 流行后:更宽的右肩和更高的年平均每日流量 (AADT) 与摩托车撞车频率的增加有关.
结论:
- 开发的SPF有效地识别了肯塔基州高碰撞率的农村多线段.
- 建议采取反制措施,例如在未划分的道路上设置中心线槽声条.
- 结果提供了数据驱动的基础,以提高摩托车手在农村多车道上的安全.
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