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全球出现前所未有的气候极端影响
Luke Grant1,2, Inne Vanderkelen3,4,5, Lukas Gudmundsson6
1Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium. luke.grant@ec.gc.ca.
Nature
|May 7, 2025
概括
年轻一代面临着因全球变暖而导致的热浪和洪水等极端气候现象. 紧急减少温室气体排放对于减轻这些前所未有的风险至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
- 人口统计
背景情况:
- 人为气候变化正在增加极端气候的频率和强度.
- 个人对这些极端事件的累积终身暴露仍然不太清楚.
研究的目的:
- 预测有多少人将面临前所未有的极端气候.
- 评估不同的全球变暖路径对这种暴露的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用气候模型,影响模型和人口数据.
- 预计将受到热浪,作物失败,河流洪水,干旱,野火和热带气旋的影响.
- 定义为前所未有的暴露超过前工业气候的第99.99个百分位.
主要成果:
- 在目前的政策 (2.7°C升温) 下,人们面临前所未有的极端气候变化的比例预计在1960年至2020年之间至少会翻一番.
- 在1.5°C的路径下,52%的2020年出生的人将经历前所未有的热浪暴露.
- 较高的变暖情景 (3.5°C) 极大增加了热浪 (92%),作物失败 (29%) 和河流洪水 (14%).
- 弱势群体面临着前所未有的高温风险.
结论:
- 必须进行深度和持续的温室气体减排.
- 减轻气候变化对当前和未来世代的负担至关重要.
- 需要采取紧急行动保护年轻人免受不断升级的气候风险.
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