解开COVID后意外出生和过度死亡之间的联系
1Department of Finance, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia.
Journal of medical economics
|May 8, 2025
概括
全球生育率大幅下降,COVID-19的过度死亡显示出与出生率变化的虚假联系. 富裕国家的出生率下降是由经济因素驱动的,而较贫穷的国家面临更高的死亡率.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
背景情况:
- 自20世纪60年代以来,全球生育率下降了一半,在许多发达国家下降到低于替代水平.
- 由于COVID-19大流行对死亡率和随后的生育趋势的影响,由于其重大社会经济影响,需要进行调查.
研究的目的:
- 调查COVID-19过度死亡和随后的出生率变化之间的关系.
- 确定影响过度死亡率和生育率趋势的国家社会经济和健康因素.
主要方法:
- 分析了18个工业化国家的30个变量,包括重要统计数据,健康,社会和经济数据.
- 确定过度死亡 (2020-2022) 和意外出生 (2022-2024).
- 回归分析以估计过度死亡,意外出生和国家参数之间的联系.
主要成果:
- 2022-2023年出生率比预期的流行前趋势低5-6%.
- 2020-2022年过度死亡率较高的国家在2022年后的出生率高于预期.
- 后COVID出生率的下降与强的经济,高女性教育/劳动力参与率和低宗教程度相关.
- 在较不富裕的国家,社会措施较弱,妇女机会较少,健康状况较差的国家,观察到过度死亡率较高.
结论:
- 意外出生和过度死亡之间的关联在很大程度上是虚假的,由不同的潜在因素驱动.
- 富裕国家在COVID后的生育率下降被生育机会成本所加速.
- 疫情对出生率轨迹的影响可能是其最重要的长期社会经济后果.
关键词:
在 COVID-19 疫情中,第112章 这是一件好事J1313 一个人的故事出生率下降 经济衰退 生育率下降关于COVID的经济学生育经济学的经济学.过多的死亡 过多的死亡生育能力 生育能力 生育能力 生育能力更多相关视频
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