失业的生命历程:失业的时间和相对风险程度
Sarah Damaske1, Adrianne Frech2, Hilary Wething3
1Sociology Department, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
概括
大多数全职工作者在整个成年期都有较低的失业风险. 然而,有些人面临着早期职业生涯或慢性失业,男性和黑人工人在晚年面临不成比例的更高风险.
科学领域:
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 劳动力市场研究 劳动力市场研究
背景情况:
- 了解长期失业风险对于劳动力市场政策至关重要.
- 以前的研究往往忽略了失业轨迹在一生中的异质性.
研究的目的:
- 确定美国工人随着年龄的增长而出现的失业风险的不同基于群体的轨迹.
- 检查影响这些失业轨迹的人口和早期生活因素.
- 分析不同生命阶段的性别和种族的失业风险差异.
主要方法:
- 使用了1979年全国青年纵向调查 (NLSY79) 数据集.
- 采用一种新的基于群体的轨迹建模方法来识别失业风险模式.
- 扩展分析包括所有工人,而不仅仅是全职员工,以捕捉更广泛的趋势.
主要成果:
- 确定了三个主要的失业风险轨迹:较低 (73%的全职工人),职业生涯早期 (18%) 和慢性 (9%).
- 当样本包括所有工人时,所有工人面临更高的年度失业率,而群体分布则会发生变化.
- 早期的劳动力市场经验和长期的青年失业显著影响了成年失业风险.
- 男人面临"更高失业率"的风险更高,黑人工人更容易受到"更高失业率"而不是"早期职业失业率".
结论:
- 对于理解失业和劳动力市场的不稳定性来说,一个生命过程的观点是必不可少的.
- 特定的人口群体,包括一些男性和黑人工人,面临着高度和持续的就业不稳定.
- 调查结果强调了需要有针对性的干预措施来解决早期职业生涯的限制和长期失业的问题.
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