碳的社会成本的趋势和偏见
Richard S J Tol1,2,3,4,5,6
1Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, UK.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|May 8, 2025
概括
碳的社会成本估计为200-250美元/tC,由于不断变化的伦理观点,上升趋势. 关键假设显著影响了这一成本,气候变化影响了经济增长,导致了更高的估计.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候变化经济学 气候变化经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 碳的社会成本 (SCC) 是气候政策的一个关键指标.
- 以前的估计有所不同,需要更新和扩展分析.
- 伦理考虑和经济建模假设显著影响SCC计算.
研究的目的:
- 为碳的社会成本提供一个更新和扩展的元分析.
- 确定SCC估计的关键驱动因素及其不确定性.
- 评估不同建模假设对SCC的影响.
主要方法:
- 对有关碳的社会成本的现有文献进行元分析.
- 关键经济假设的敏感性分析 (时间偏好,时间间替代的弹性).
- 根据不同的气候变化影响途径 (水平与增长效应) 进行SCC估计的比较.
主要成果:
- 碳的社会成本的中央估计被证实为每碳 (tC) 约为200-250美元.
- 观察到一个大,右倾的不确定性范围,估计上升趋势.
- 当气候变化影响经济增长而不是产出/福利水平时,SCC的估计值大幅上升.
结论:
- 碳的社会成本是巨大的,受到伦理观点和经济假设的影响.
- 时间偏好率和时间间置换的弹性是关键参数.
- 潜在的出版和引用偏差可能会膨胀SCC估计,需要仔细解释.
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