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在用CO2丰富的牧场观测和建模碳流

Miko U F Kirschbaum¹, Marcela A González-Moreno², Paul L Mudge³

¹Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand.

The Science of the total environment

|May 8, 2025

概括

大气中二氧化碳 (CO2) 的增加使新西兰牧场的生产率提高了10%,而模型预测了更高的收益. 土壤有机碳 (SOC) 的变化很小,这表明CO2可以在没有显著的碳损失的情况下提高农业产量.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
环境科学环境科学
生态生态学生态生态学

背景情况:

从1997年到2020年,新西兰经营了一个独特的空中CO2缩 (FACE) 设施,包括定期的羊放牧.
该设施研究了高CO2的影响 (约. 在牧场生态系统上的100μmolmol-1).

研究的目的:

将观察到的牧场生产力和土壤有机碳 (SOC) 与在高CO2下CenW和APSIM模型的模拟进行比较.
评估高碳对放牧牧场系统的影响,考虑生产力和碳捕获.

主要方法:

利用了23年来在新西兰放牧羊的空气CO2丰富 (FACE) 实验的数据.
将观察到的牧场生物质生产率和SOC变化与CenW和APSIM作物模型的模拟进行了比较.
根据调整的牧场频率,对生长和SOC的潜在变化进行了场景分析.

主要成果:

观察到的牧场生产率平均为8tDM ha-1 yr,在高CO2下增加10%,尽管模型预测了更高的18%的增强.
两种CenW和APSIM模型都与观察到的年度 (0.53-0.48) 和季节性 (0.89) 生产率有很好的一致性.
升高的CO2显示微小的模拟SOC增加 (1-3tC ha-1),但测量没有发现显著差异;场景分析表明SOC可能保持稳定或随着放牧增加而减少.

结论:

升高的CO2提高了放牧牧场的生产力,模型显示出比观察到的更大的潜力.
虽然模型表明SOC的增加很小,但现实世界的测量和场景分析表明对SOC的影响很小,在强化放牧的情况下可能会减少.
研究结果表明,高的CO2可以在放牧系统中提高农业生产力,而不会对土壤有机碳产生重大负面影响.

关键词:

在 APSIM 里面.这里是CENW.丁是什么意思丁是什么意思面对面的面对面的面对面牧场牧场牧场牧场牧场土壤碳是土壤中的碳.

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