评估ERA5风力参数与现场数据在海上中国中国海上
Weidong Ji1, Rongfu Li1, Wenfei Xue1
1Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd, Urumqi, China.
PloS one
|May 9, 2025
概括
ERA5重新分析的风力数据与中国沿海的观测数据保持良好一致,但低估了极端速度. 北方的模拟技能更高,在较长的时间尺度上准确度更高.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 评估可再生能源的使用情况.
背景情况:
- 在中国沿海地区存在丰富的风能资源.
- 准确的风速数据对于气象学,沿海工程和海事行业至关重要.
- 重新分析数据和直接测量是了解风场的关键.
研究的目的:
- 评估ERA5重新分析风速数据 (10m和100m) 与直接测量的准确性.
- 评估中国沿海风速的时空特征.
- 确定ERA5数据适用于气象和可再生能源应用的适用性.
主要方法:
- 将每小时10m和100m ERA5风速数据与中国19座沿海风力发电塔的测量数据进行比较.
- 使用基于频率分布的评分方法进行站式比较.
- 分析了分布函数参数,平均值,可变性和风门频率.
主要成果:
- ERA5数据显示了与观测的良好统计一致性,但倾向于低估高风速.
- 每小时的分数从0.8到0.9不等,与南方相比,北方地区的技能更高.
- 在较长的时间尺度 (6-24小时) 上,ERA5的准确性得到改善,相关性增加,错误指标减少.
结论:
- 尽管低估了极端事件,但ERA5重新分析为研究提供了有价值的,空间分布的风力数据.
- 模型的模拟技能因地区而异,受台风等因素的影响.
- ERA5数据对于气象和可再生能源研究是有用的,只要考虑到它的局限性.
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