比较时间间决策模型:通过主观时间感知对寿命的预测和应用.
Lijuan Dai1,2, Ya Wang3, Robin Chark2,4
1Department of Psychology, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Macau, Macao, China.
概括
采用史蒂文斯的时间间选择模型.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 神经经济学 神经经济学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 时间间决策涉及评估未来的奖励,这是一个基本的认知过程.
- 现有的模型,如过度推算和指数折扣,为主观时间感知提供了有限的解释.
- 了解决策中的年龄相关差异需要采用捕捉非线性时间感知模型.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较五种时间间选择模型的解释和预测能力.
- 评估与基本折扣模型相比,结合时间感知心理物理原理的模型.
- 为了调查延迟折扣和时间感知参数在寿命中的与年龄相关的变化.
主要方法:
- 比较过度,指数,史蒂文斯的功率定律指数,韦伯-费克纳指数,和史蒂文斯的功率定律过度的折扣模型.
- 利用了三个独立的数据集进行模型拟合和交叉验证.
- 将表现最好的模型应用于寿命样本 (9-82岁).
主要成果:
- 史蒂文斯的功率定律指数和过度推算模型显示出优越的适应性和预测准确性.
- 研究结果表明,时间间选择中的时间感知符合史蒂文斯的功率定律.
- 在使用寿命期间观察到折扣率和时间感知参数的非线性变化.
结论:
- 集成非线性时间感知的模型,特别是史蒂文斯的功率定律,增强了对时间间选择的理解.
- 延迟折扣的年龄相关差异可以归因于主观时间感知的变化.
- 这项研究支持了关于整个生命周期中与年龄相关的决策变化理论.
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