预测金国家使用灰色断点预测模型的二氧化碳排放.
1Western Collaborative Innovation Research Center for Energy Economy and Regional Development, Xi'an University of Finance and Economics, Xi'an, 710100, China. wanghuiping@xaufe.edu.cn.
Carbon balance and management
|May 9, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了新的灰色断点预测模型,以准确预测金国家的二氧化碳排放. 这些模型成功地识别了系统变化,并提高了二氧化碳水平的预测准确性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化建模模型
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 准确预测二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放对于减缓气候变化战略至关重要.
- 现有的灰色预测模型可能缺乏捕捉排放趋势突然变化的精度.
- 金国家 (巴西,俄罗斯,印度,中国,南非) 代表着具有不同排放轨迹的重要全球排放国.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证新的灰色断点预测模型,以进行增强的二氧化碳排放预测.
- 提高灰色模型在捕捉系统动态和突然变化的准确性和适用性.
- 为各个金国家预测未来的二氧化碳排放趋势.
主要方法:
- 开发了三种包含模糊断点的新型灰色断点预测模型.
- 统一参数估计和时间响应方程计算.
- 使用粒子群优化算法优化双阶段背景值.
- 应用模型模拟和预测金国家二氧化碳排放.
主要成果:
- 新型灰色断点预测模型成功检测到CO2排放的突然变化,并提高了预测准确度.
- 所有模型在布里克斯国家的二氧化碳排放预测中都显示出优异的估计性能.
- 预测显示,巴西和南非的二氧化碳排放量下降,在2022-2025年期间,中国,俄罗斯和印度的排放量增加,印度的减缓趋势.
结论:
- 提出的灰色断点预测模型为时间序列预测提供了更高的准确性和适用性,特别是对于突然变化的系统.
- 这些模型为关键新兴经济体的未来二氧化碳排放趋势提供了宝贵的见解.
- 这些发现支持针对性地减缓气候变化,并为金国家制定政策.
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