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Updated: May 14, 2025

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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
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根据中亚极端温度的未来预测 (2022-2100) 的能源发电和碳足迹
Parya Broomandi1,2, Mehdi Bagheri2, Ali Mozhdehi Fard3
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering School of Engineering and Digital Sciences Nazarbayev University Kabanbay Batyr Ave. 53 Astana 010000 Kazakhstan.
Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)
|May 12, 2025
概括
气候变化将增加中亚地区的冷却需求和能源需求,尽管供暖需求正在下降. 吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的可再生能源依赖显著降低了与冷却相关的碳排放,突出了适应的需要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升的目标越来越难以实现.
- 中亚 (CA) 在气候变化对能源消费的影响方面仍然缺乏研究.
- 预计的气候变化包括减少/冰的日子和增加夏季/热带夜晚.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对中亚地区供暖和制冷能源需求的影响.
- 分析整个地区由此产生的碳足迹影响.
- 根据不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 预测这些变化.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自中亚700个地区的气候和能源数据.
- 利用了从1962年到2100年的气候预测.
- 雇员共享社会经济路径 (SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5) 用于场景分析.
主要成果:
- 预计冷却度日将大幅增加,特别是在吉尔吉斯斯坦 (132%-165%).
- 整个AC的冷却能源发电量可能会增加39%-92%.
- 由于使用可再生能源,吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的二氧化碳排放量明显降低.
结论:
- 中亚城市需要紧急的适应战略,以应对增加的冷却需求.
- 扩大可再生能源,现代化基础设施和实施支持性政策对于能源稳定至关重要.
- 面对气候变化,国际合作对于建设有弹性的城市环境和电力系统至关重要.
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