用于预测急性胰腺炎危急病患者28天死亡率的不同评分系统的比较:一项回顾性队列研究
Zeyu Zhang1, Zheng Wang2,3, Fei Li2,3
1Department of General Surgery, The Affiliated Huai'an Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Huai'an, Jiangsu, China.
Scandinavian journal of gastroenterology
|May 12, 2025
概括
急性生理学得分III (APSIII) 和急性胰腺炎重度床边指数 (BISAP) 有效预测急性胰腺炎重症患者的死亡率. 对于短期和长期的结果,APSIII提供了最好的歧视.
科学领域:
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 急性胰腺炎 (AP) 是一种严重的疾病,死亡率很高.
- 准确预测死亡率对于患者管理至关重要.
- 现有的评分系统需要对AP患者进行比较评估.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较八个评分系统在预测危重病AP患者的短期 (28天) 和长期 (1年) 全因死亡率方面的表现.
- 确定最准确,最可靠的AP预测评分系统.
主要方法:
- 从密集护理IV (MIMIC-IV) 数据库中对医疗信息中心数据进行了回顾性分析.
- 包括694名诊断为急性胰腺炎的重症患者.
- 使用接收器运行特征 (ROC) 曲线 (曲线下的面积[AUC]),受限立方线 (RCS) 和多变量后勤回归来评估预测性能.
主要成果:
- 急性生理学得分III (APSIII) 显示28天死亡率的最高AUC为 (0.847),紧随其后的是BISAP (0.835).
- APSIII和BISAP被确定为28天死亡率的独立预测因素.
- APSIII,BISAP和简化急性生理学评分II (SAPS II) 是1年死亡率的独立预测指标.
结论:
- 在重症AP患者中,APSIII在28天和1年死亡率方面表现出卓越的区分能力.
- 由于其简单性和可比的预测性能,BISAP是一个可行的替代方案.
- APSIII和BISAP都是预测急性胰腺炎死亡率的有价值的工具.
相关概念视频
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Pancreatitis is inflammation of the pancreas, an organ located behind the stomach. It can be either acute or chronic.
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