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自1880年以来,随时间变化的全球能源预算来自于海洋变暖的重建
Quran Wu1, Jonathan M Gregory1,2, Laure Zanna3,4
1National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6ET, United Kingdom.
概括
自1880年以来,地球的能量不平衡对气候变化至关重要. 该研究揭示了不同的阶段,1980年后的不平衡落后于辐射强迫,影响了未来的全球变暖预测.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 全球能源预算量化了地球的能源不平衡,这对于了解气候变化至关重要.
- 大约90%的这种不平衡被储存在海洋中的热量中,而海洋的历史数据有限.
- 重建过去的能源失衡对于准确的气候变化建模至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 重建从1880年到2020年的地球能量不平衡.
- 分析全球能源预算的历史趋势及其驱动因素.
- 改善观测和建模气候变化之间的一致性.
主要方法:
- 从使用格林函数方法的表面观测推断的地下海洋变暖.
- 从1880年到2020年重建了地球的能量不平衡.
- 将重建的数据与辐射强迫和反应估计进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 重建的能量不平衡与当前对辐射强迫和反应 (1880-2020) 的估计相一致.
- 确定了两个不同的阶段:1880-1980年 (不平衡追踪强迫) 和1980年后 (不平衡滞后强迫).
- 1980年后,能源不平衡在2000年至2020年期间不到50%的强迫.
结论:
- 该研究提供了对地球能量不平衡的一致重建,改进了之前的估计.
- 在全球能源预算中观察到的历史变化表明了不同的未来变暖情景.
- 需要进一步的研究,以了解能源预算中确定的历史变化的原因.
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