本土早期预警指标用于改善自然灾害预测
Masego M Motsumi1, Livhuwani D Nemakonde1
1African Centre for Disaster Studies, Unit for Environmental Science and Management, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa.
Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)
|May 13, 2025
概括
原住民社区使用环境标志来预测自然灾害,在正式系统不足的情况下加强灾难准备. 将这种传统知识与天气预报相结合,可以提高弹性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
背景情况:
- 土著知识对于减少灾害风险至关重要,特别是在缺乏传统预警系统的农村地区.
- 传统的生态知识有助于社区在危险事件发生后做好准备,应对和恢复.
研究的目的:
- 在南非的乔·莫罗隆地方自治市 (Joe Morolong Local Municipality) 调查土著指标以预测自然灾害.
- 探索将土著知识与气象预报相结合,以加强灾害风险管理.
主要方法:
- 使用了定性现象学方法.
- 通过焦点小组讨论和与109名参与者进行虚拟访谈收集的数据.
主要成果:
- 社区利用环境指标,如植被变化,月球周期,云彩模式,鸟类行为和风来预测危险.
- 这些土著方法提供了本地化的,可信的,以及与上下文相关的早期预警信息.
- 传统知识补充了气象预报,改善了对灾害的准备.
结论:
- 土著知识是提高灾难和气候适应能力的关键资源.
- 将传统指标与科学预测相结合,可以加强农村社区的预警系统.
- 这种协同作用改善了降低风险和应对自然灾害的反应.
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