晚期生育在欧洲各地区的扩散 (2006-2018)
Ingrid Setz1,2, Marie-Caroline Compans1,3,4, Éva Beaujouan1,3
1Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria.
概括
晚期生育率在欧洲各地不均地上升. 这项研究表明,地理接近,或空间扩散,显著影响后期分娩的传播,超出社会经济因素.
科学领域:
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 地理 地理 地理 地理.
背景情况:
- 晚期生育是高收入国家日益增长的趋势,但其地理分布不均.
- 传统上,社会经济因素被认为是这种趋势的主要驱动因素.
- 以前的研究还没有完全探索空间扩散在生育模式中的作用.
研究的目的:
- 研究空间扩散过程在欧洲地区晚期生育率上升中的作用.
- 评估区域晚期生育趋势是否受到地理上相邻地区的行为影响.
- 为了确定空间扩散是否有助于晚期生育率,独立于社会经济因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了18个欧洲国家的193个地区的综合面板数据集.
- 采用动态空间德宾模型来分析时间和空间的相互依赖.
- 控制了关键的社会经济因素,如教育三级化和劳动力市场变化.
主要成果:
- 在地理接近与晚期生育率上升之间发现了显著的关联.
- 空间扩散过程被认为是导致晚期生育趋势的因素,即使考虑到社会经济变量.
- 该研究强调了欧洲地区在塑造生育行为方面的相互联系.
结论:
- 扩散过程在欧洲延迟生育的传播中发挥着重要作用.
- 地理接近影响生育趋势,表明人口变化的空间组成部分.
- 欧洲未来的生育趋势很可能会继续受到这些扩散动态的影响.
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