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针叶树的生产率下降将推动未来的森林动态,因为新英格兰北部的气候变化
Erin Simons-Legaard1,2, Kasey Legaard2, Aaron Weiskittel1,2
1School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Orono, Maine, USA.
概括
气候变化威胁着新英格兰.
科学领域:
- 林业和气候变化对温带森林生态系统的影响.
- 在气候变化场景下预测森林动态的生态建模.
- 可持续森林管理和自然气候解决方案.
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,新英格兰的温带森林面临着树息地适合性的下降.
- 了解森林转型动态对于商业林业和碳捕获至关重要.
- 现有的森林管理实践可能无法抵御未来的气候条件.
研究的目的:
- 模拟气候变化和伐木对新英格兰森林的影响.
- 评估对活体,地表生物质和碳捕集潜力的影响.
- 在与森林管理相关的规模上评估适应战略.
主要方法:
- 利用LANDIS-II森林景观模型在RCP 4.5和8.5.5下模拟气候变化.
- 在缅因州的主要采伐制度下与木材采伐的结合性相互作用.
- 分析了物种净初级生产率和生物质趋势 (2010-2100) 建立概率的变化.
主要成果:
- 气候变化对整个地区的森林生物质产生了负面影响,主要是由于针叶树的生产力下降.
- 预计像香杉和红杉这样的针叶树仍将保持生产力,但面临着下降的建立.
- 区域收获供应可能会在短期内维持,但当前的做法可能会导致不可持续性,因为针叶树的生产力下降.
结论:
- 新英格兰的森林很可能在本世纪仍然是一个地下的碳汇.
- 适应性管理对于提高森林对气候变化的抵抗力和弹性至关重要.
- 如果没有适应,预计森林的碳捕获能力将减少.
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