关于吸烟对胃潰瘍疾病的影响的全球视角:DALY趋势和预测
Chang Li1, Kun Jiang1, Shennan Pan1
1Department of Medical Laboratory, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, Jiangsu, China.
Frontiers in public health
|May 14, 2025
概括
全球趋势显示,吸烟导致的胃潰瘍疾病 (PUD) 和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 显著下降. 未来的预测显示持续下降,但PUD负担的区域和性别差异需要有针对性的烟草控制努力.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生流行病学
- 烟草控制研究研究 烟草控制研究
- 疾病负担分析疾病负担分析
背景情况:
- 胃潰瘍疾病 (PUD) 仍然是全球重要的健康問題,吸煙被認為是主要的風險因素.
- 根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALYs) 是量化疾病总负担的关键指标,包括死亡率和发病率.
- 了解吸烟导致的PUD的历史和预测未来趋势对于公共卫生政策和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年分析吸烟引起的胃病 (PUD) 和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 的全球趋势.
- 预测到2046年可归因于吸烟的PUD DALY的未来趋势.
- 确定吸烟导致的PUD负担中的区域和性别差异.
主要方法:
- 数据来源于2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据.
- 根据年龄标准化的DALY率 (ASDR) 和估计年百分比变化 (EAPC) 为吸烟导致的PUD计算.
- 贝叶斯年龄-周期-队列模型被用于未来趋势预测.
主要成果:
- 在1990年至2021年间,全球吸烟导致的PUD DALY显著下降,ASDR从每10万人口中的35.4降至9.4 (EAPC: -4.45%).
- 高收入地区的下降速度更快,而一些低收入和中等收入国家的进展或增长速度更慢.
- 观察到持续的性别差异,男性始终具有更高的ASDR. 预测显示,到2046年,全球人口将继续下降至每10万人中3.2人,区域差异显著.
结论:
- 尽管吸烟导致的PUD DALYs在全球显著下降,未来预测有利,但区域和性别差异仍然存在.
- 有针对性的烟草控制干预措施至关重要,特别是在高风险地区和弱势群体中.
- 持续监测和量身定制的公共卫生战略是必要的,以进一步减轻吸烟引起的PUD的全球负担.
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