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机器学习模型的外部验证 - 注册模型和自适应样本分割
Giuseppe Gallitto1,2, Robert Englert1,3, Balint Kincses1,2
1Center for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences (C-TNBS), University Medicine Essen, Hufelandstraße 55, 45147, Essen, Germany.
GigaScience
|May 14, 2025
概括
将模型发现与外部验证与公开披露分开,提高了可信度. 一种新的自适应分割方法优化了这种平衡,最大限度地提高了预测性能,而不会冒着不确定的验证风险.
科学领域:
- 生物医学研究的研究.
- 翻译医学是一种翻译医学.
- 机器学习是机器学习.
背景情况:
- 多变量预测模型对于理解生物系统和开发翻译医学研究工具至关重要.
- 模型的复杂性和广泛的数据预处理可能导致过度拟合和糟糕的概括性.
- 独立数据的外部验证对于公正的评估至关重要,但由于成本,经常被忽视.
研究的目的:
- 提出方法来提高在翻译研究中的预测模型的可信度.
- 引入一种新的方法来优化模型发现和外部验证努力之间的平衡.
- 在预测建模中解决可复制性,效果大小膨胀和通用性的问题.
主要方法:
- 通过对特征处理和模型权重的公开披露 (例如预先注册) 来分离模型发现和外部验证.
- 实施一种新的自适应分割方法,以优化模型发现和外部验证之间的权衡.
- 在四个独立数据集的3000多名参与者身上测试该方法.
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法通过将模型发现和外部验证分开来确保最大的可信性.
- 适应式分割方法确定停止模型发现的最佳时间,以最大限度地提高预测性能.
- 这种方法可以避免风险低功率和不确定的外部验证.
结论:
- 拟议的设计和分割方法,在"AdaptiveSplit"Python包中实现,可以提高可复制性.
- 该方法有助于减轻预测建模研究中的效果大小膨胀.
- 它有助于提高医学研究中预测模型的通用性.
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