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开发和验证CARE-DM模型,以预测2型糖尿病老年人的心血管风险
Valerie Aponte Ribero1,2, Orestis Efthimiou1, Heba Alwan1
1Institute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, 3012, Bern, Switzerland.
European journal of preventive cardiology
|May 14, 2025
概括
一个新的心血管风险估计 - 糖尿病 (CARE-DM) 模型预测了2型糖尿病老年人的心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险. 在临床使用之前需要进一步验证.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 内分泌学 在内分泌学.
- 老年病的医生 老年病的医生
背景情况:
- 欧洲心脏病学会目前的心血管风险预测模型并没有特别建议糖尿病的老年人 (≥70岁).
- 需要一个专门的风险评估工具来评估这个弱势群体的风险.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证心血管风险估计 - 糖尿病 (CARE-DM) 模型.
- 预测65岁及以上2型糖尿病患者发生心血管疾病 (CVD) 的风险.
主要方法:
- 开发CARE-DM模型,使用来自四个潜在的基于人口的队列的数据.
- 包括诸如年龄,性别,生活方式因素,药物使用,糖尿病持续时间和糖化血红蛋白等预测因素.
- 考虑非心血管死亡的竞争风险,并使用十倍交叉验证和性能评估的引导.
主要成果:
- 该模型是使用6,943名参与者的数据开发的,平均年龄为72岁.
- 在平均6.3年的随访期间,17.3%的参与者经历了心血管疾病事件.
- 内部验证表明5年后c指数为0.65和观察到预期的比率为1.01,表现良好.
结论:
- CARE-DM模型对预测2型糖尿病老年人心血管疾病风险具有前景.
- 建议进行独立的外部验证,以确认模型的可靠性并促进临床实施.
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