评估基于树的集体机器学习技术对临床风险预测的样本大小要求
Oya Kalaycıoğlu1,2, Menelaos Pavlou2, Serhat E Akhanlı3
1Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal University, Bolu, Türkiye.
Statistical methods in medical research
|May 14, 2025
概括
使用机器学习技术 (MLT) 的临床风险模型的样本大小准则尚不清楚. 这项研究发现,针对平均绝对预测误差 (MAPE) 的现有指南对于基于树的MLT是不够的,但适合对C统计的外部验证.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
- 临床预测建模模型
背景情况:
- 机器学习技术 (MLT) 已被广泛采用用于临床风险预测.
- 缺乏开发和验证MLT模型的明确样本大小要求.
- 现有的指导方针往往侧重于后勤回归,而不是集合MLT.
研究的目的:
- 评估样本大小指南的适用性,用于对基于树木的集合MLT (包装,随机森林,增强) 的后勤回归.
- 在各种数据生成机制和样本大小下评估MLT性能指标 (MAPE,C统计,布里尔得分,校准).
- 确定适当的样本大小计算,用于MLT开发和外部验证.
主要方法:
- 使用两个大型心血管数据集进行的模拟.
- 评估MLT (增强,随机森林,包装) 和后勤回归.
- 通过六个数据生成机制 (DGM) 和不同的样本大小进行评估.
- 性能指标包括平均绝对预测错误 (MAPE),C统计,Brier分数和校准.
主要成果:
- 增强模型需要在DGM与分析模型相匹配时,达到推样本大小的2-3倍.
- 随机森林和袋装未能达到目标MAPE,即使样本大小增加了12倍.
- 后勤回归和增强需要对中性DGM的样本大小增加12倍.
- 对于C-统计精度的样本大小准则适用于MLT的外部验证.
结论:
- 针对MAPE的现有样本大小准则对于以树为基础的集合MLT是不够的.
- 许多MLT,特别是随机森林和包装,表现出超出当前建议的实质性样本规模需求.
- 外部验证中的C统计精度指南可以为MLT的样本大小计算提供信息.
- 需要进一步的研究来完善用于MLT模型开发的样本大小建议.
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