在出生时预测5岁儿童的心理健康:使用前ELFE出生队列开发和内部验证一个多变量模型
Emma Butler1, Michelle Spirtos2, Linda M O' Keeffe3,4
1Department of Population Health, Royal College of Surgeons Ireland, Dublin, Ireland. emmabutler21@rcsi.com.
European child & adolescent psychiatry
|May 14, 2025
概括
一个新的模型从围产期数据预测了儿童的心理健康. 它有效地识别低风险儿童,帮助早期干预策略,以获得更好的发展结果.
科学领域:
- 围产期健康 围产期健康
- 儿童心理健康预测 儿童心理健康预测
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 儿童心理健康是一个重要的公共卫生问题.
- 早期识别有风险儿童对于及时干预至关重要.
- 预测模型可以帮助分层风险在围产期期间.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个多变量预测模型5岁儿童的心理健康使用围产期数据.
- 确定幼儿时期心理健康结果的关键预测因素.
- 评估模型在不同的人口和临床子组中的表现.
主要方法:
- 使用了ELFE前性法国多中心出生队列 (n=9768).
- 用于最小绝对缩小和选择器操作员 (LASSO) 回归,用于变量选择.
- 强项和困难问卷的二分化总分数在5年后作为结果指标.
主要成果:
- 一个10个变量模型实现了0.67的C统计值 (95%CI:0.64-0.69) 预测心理健康.
- 该模型对78.8%的儿童进行了正确分类,负预测值为95.4%.
- 各组的表现一致,高风险新生儿的准确性得到改善 (AUC 0.78).
结论:
- 开发的模型对于识别心理健康问题的低风险儿童是有价值的.
- 使用这种模式的分层预防性干预框架可以优化资源分配.
- 在临床实践采用之前,需要外部验证和实施研究.
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