基于信息传播和扩展灰色集群模型的工业化城市地区的合风险评估方法的研究
Chen Lv1,2, Xiaolu Wang3, Sheng Xue2
1College of Energy Environment and Safety Engineering, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou, China.
PloS one
|May 15, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一个动态模型来评估城市地区的工业事故风险,解决数据的局限性. 该模型显示,工业化地区存在广泛的固有风险,但安全系统强大.
科学领域:
- 工业安全和风险管理
- 城市规划和发展.
- 系统工程和模糊数学.
背景情况:
- 评估区域事故风险对于优化工业布局和管理城市风险至关重要.
- 城市地区有限的小样本数据导致不完整的信息和风险评估中的模糊判断.
- 现有的方法与数据缺陷和固有的风险和区域脆弱性的复杂相互作用作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 为工业化城市地区的合风险提出一个动态控制模型.
- 整合系统工程原则来分析固有的生产安全风险和区域安全保护系统的脆弱性.
- 为城市环境中有效的生产安全风险管理提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 利用模糊集合理论和一个设置值模糊数学方法,以单个样本点进行固有风险分析.
- 采用信息传播模型,通过扩展不完整信息来解决数据缺陷.
- 开发了一个扩展灰色集群漏洞评估模型,结合扩展理论和灰色集群,以评估安全系统的弹性.
主要成果:
- 动态控制模型有效评估固有的生产安全风险和区域安全保护系统的脆弱性.
- 对城市地区的应用表明,工业化地区内存在广泛的固有风险.
- 该研究发现,区域安全保护系统具有最小的脆弱性,并表现出强大的弹性.
结论:
- 拟议的模型提供了一种科学合理的方法来管理城市工业区的生产安全风险.
- 调查结果表明,需要采用动态风险管理策略,考虑到固有的风险和系统漏洞.
- 结果为城市规划人员和安全管理人员提供了有价值的见解,以提高区域安全.
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