由于环境造成的缺血性中风负担的全球变化 PM2.5:从1990年到2020年的趋势和到2050年的预测
Yisen Yang1,2, Kai Li1,2, Jing Xu1,2
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, School of Basic Medicine Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Neurology
|May 15, 2025
概括
在全球范围内,细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 空气污染的减少显著降低了缺血性中风 (IS) 病例. 持续努力至关重要,特别是在低收入地区,以解决持续存在的健康差异.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 缺血性中风 (IS) 是全球主要的死亡和残疾原因.
- 环境细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 暴露是IS的一个关键可修改的风险因素.
- 关于PM2.5变化如何影响IS负担的全球数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2020年量化归因于PM2.5的IS负担的变化.
- 预测到2050年之前与PM2.5相关的未来IS趋势.
- 评估PM2.5对IS影响的区域差异.
主要方法:
- 利用2021年全球疾病负担研究对204个国家的数据.
- 应用了环境效益映射和分析计划 (BenMAP) 算法来估计PM2.5归因的IS病例.
- 采用自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型进行未来预测.
主要成果:
- 全球PM2.5降低了8.18μg/m3 (1990-2020年),避免了约920,245个IS病例 (2020年发病率的12.11%).
- 东亚和太平洋地区获得了最大的好处,避免了699,218个IS病例 (19.09%的区域发病率).
- 预计2050年PM2.5的下降可以防止额外的6,004,854个IS病例,但差异仍然存在.
结论:
- 减少PM2.5对减轻IS负担带来了相当大的公共卫生效益.
- 高收入地区从空气质量法规中获益,而低收入地区面临着持续的挑战.
- 有针对性的政策和公平的资源分配对于减少IS差异和改善结果至关重要.
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