基于空间滞后模型的气候影响机制,中国广东北部的植被植被碳封存变化,基于空间滞后模型
Sen-Yuan Pan1, Qiao-Wei Zhou1, Jing-Gang Li1,2
1School of Public Management, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510640, China.
概括
人类活动显著影响广东北部的植被碳封存,超过了气候因素. 了解这些驱动因素对于区域气候目标和发展至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 植被碳封存对于区域气候目标至关重要,但目前的研究忽略了影响因素的时空自相关性.
- 缺乏对碳捕获动态因素影响的准确评估.
研究的目的:
- 分析2001-2020年广东北部植被碳捕获的时空变化.
- 研究气候和人类活动在推动这些变化的作用.
- 量化每个因素对植被碳捕获动态的贡献.
主要方法:
- 利用了气象和净初级生产率 (NPP) 数据 (2001-2020年).
- 采用空间滞后面板模型,部分相关性,主导分析和地理加权回归.
- 应用了剩余趋势方法来量化因素贡献.
主要成果:
- 平均碳封存量为955.43g C·m−2,显示出随着空间异质性的波动下降趋势.
- 年平均相对湿度,日照时间和降雨量显著影响了碳封存.
- 影响因素的空间变化与高度相关.
结论:
- 人类活动是广东北部植被碳捕获变化的主要驱动因素,贡献70.2%,而气候因素占29.8%.
- 调查结果强调,需要将人类活动管理纳入战略,以加强区域碳捕获,实现二氧化碳目标.
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