老年痛风的全球负担和未来预测 (1990-2021):综合分析和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列建模
Jiqing Wang1, Yonghui Zhao1, Boya Zhao2
1Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
在全球范围内,痛风发病率,流行率和残疾率在老年人中不断上升,特别是在高收入地区和妇女中. 预测显示持续增加,需要有针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 老年病的医生 老年病的医生
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 痛风是一种严重的慢性疾病,影响老年人,导致疾病负担,医疗费用和残疾.
- 痛风的全球流行和影响正在增加,特别是在老年人群中.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,分析60岁及以上的个人中痛风发病率,患病率和残疾年龄 (YLDs) 的全球趋势.
- 探索不同社会人口指数 (SDI) 地区的痛风负担的差异,并预测到2036年的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了204个国家和地区的全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据库 (1990-2021).
- 评估了60岁以上个体的年龄标准化发病率,流行率和YLDs.
- 应用不平等,边界和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列 (BAPC) 分析用于趋势预测.
主要成果:
- 痛风发病率,流行率和YLDs在整个研究期间显示出一致的增加.
- 在高SDI地区和老年女性中观察到快速增长.
- 在SDI较低的地区,人们注意到痛风负担的增加趋势,国家层面的异质性很大.
结论:
- 到2036年,预计的痛风负担的增加凸显了迫切需要有针对性的公共卫生战略的需要.
- 跨SDI群体的差异强调了医疗基础设施,预防和文化因素在痛风管理中的作用.
- 综合性干预对于应对高风险老年人群中日益严重的痛风挑战至关重要.
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