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南极的息地适应性变化:根据气候情景的历史趋势和未来预测
Meng Cui1, Yong Yu2, Kewei Shen3
1National Arctic and Antarctic Data Center, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 201209, China; Ministry of Natural Resources Key Laboratory of Polar Science, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 201209, China.
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概括
由于气候变化,南极的息地正向极地转移,高排放导致严重损失. 保护这些重要的南洋生态系统需要全球行动.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 南极是南洋生态系统的基础.
- 目前数据的局限性阻碍了对的息地适应性变化的理解.
- 鱼息地的时空变化需要紧急调查.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估南极适合息地的时空变化.
- 确定影响鱼息地适宜性的关键环境驱动因素.
- 在不同的气候场景下预测未来的息地变化.
主要方法:
- 来自中国南极探险研究团和KRILLBASE数据库的综合数据.
- 使用Maxent模型进行息地适宜性评估.
- 在SSP-RCP情景下,分析了从1991年到2100年的东部和西部南极地区的息地转移.
主要成果:
- 确定了气候和对鱼息地的环境影响的重大区域差异.
- 确定海洋温度和pH值作为影响息地适宜性的主要因素.
- 在合适的息地观察到极向变化,CCAMLR 48和58区域的度变化相反.
- 预计在高排放场景下严重息地收缩,在低排放场景下潜在的部分恢复.
结论:
- 气候变化显著影响南极的息地适宜性,区域影响各不相同.
- 迫切需要采取全球行动,以缓解南大洋生物多样性丧失.
- 保护战略必须考虑到预计的息地变迁和气候影响.
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