使用XGBoost预测医院门诊量:一种机器学习方法
Lingling Zhou1, Qin Zhu1, Qian Chen1
1Department of Information, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University, Chongqing, 400042, China.
Scientific reports
|May 16, 2025
概括
使用XGBoost机器学习预测医院门诊患者的数量,提供了卓越的准确性. 这种方法有效地整合了环境因素和医疗保健资源,以提高运营效率.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
背景情况:
- 医院门诊患者的数量受环境条件和医疗保健资源的可用性影响.
- 准确预测门诊需求对于运营效率和资源配置至关重要.
- 现有的预测模型可能无法完全捕捉影响门诊患者数量的因素的复杂相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 使用XGBoost算法开发和评估每日医院门诊患者数量的预测模型.
- 为了比较XGBoost与季节性自回归集成移动平均线的性能,使用外源回归器 (SARIMAX) 和随机森林 (RF) 模型.
- 确定影响医院门诊需求的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了从2014年1月1日到2024年10月31日的每日气候数据 (温度,降水,PM2.5),历史门诊数量和门诊专家数量.
- 预处理的数据包括处理缺失值和编码分类变量.
- 使用平均绝对误差 (MAE),根平均平方误差 (RMSE),平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 和R平方 (R2) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- XGBoost 模型显示出比 SARIMAX 和 RF 模型更高的预测准确度.
- XGBoost获得了最低的MAE,RMSE和MAPE,以及最高的R2.
- 重要预测因素包括门诊专家的数量,时间变量,平均温度和PM2.5水平.
结论:
- XGBoost是一个高效的机器学习算法,用于预测医院门诊患者的数量.
- 准确的需求预测使积极的资源配置和改善医院服务能力成为可能.
- 整合环境和资源数据可以提高门诊体积预测的精度.
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