在全球,区域和国家一级,关于中风的流行病学趋势和预测
Nannan Qian1, Chengcheng Lu2, Taohua Wei3
1Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, Anhui 230031, China; Anhui University of Chinese Medicine First Clinical Medical College, Hefei, Anhui 230031, China; Key Laboratory of Xin'An Medicine, Ministry of Education, Hefei, Anhui 230031, China; Graduate School, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, Anhui 230031, China.
概括
从1990年到2021年,全球中风发病率上升了15%,但年龄标准化率下降. 卒中负担在女性和中等收入地区增长最多,不平等性不断扩大. 未来的努力必须解决性别,年龄和地区差异.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 脑卒中包括缺血和出血类型,是导致严重发病,死亡和复发的首要原因.
- 了解流行病学趋势对于制定有效的公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析1990年至2021年全球中风流行病学趋势.
- 探索中风负担与社会人口统计指数 (SDI) 之间的关系.
- 预测到2035年的中风趋势,并确定影响疾病负担的因素.
主要方法:
- 利用全球疾病负担数据库对中风发病率,死亡率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 数据进行了分析.
- 雇佣年龄标准化利率 (ASR),估计年百分比变化 (EAPC),贝叶斯年龄期队列 (BAPC) 建模和分解分析.
- 应用边界分析和世卫组织定义的指数 (SII,度指数) 来评估负担和不平等.
主要成果:
- 全球中风发病率增加了15.03% (1990-2021年),女性的发病率更高,尽管年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 总体下降.
- 卒中死亡率整体下降,但在男性中增加. 根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALYs) 增长,特别是在中等SDI地区,受老龄化和人口增长的推动.
- 存在显著的区域差异,东欧,中亚和东亚的发病率最高. 在中风负担的绝对和相对健康不平等已经升级.
结论:
- 尽管年龄标准化率下降,但全球中风发病率上升和DALYs需要继续关注公共卫生.
- 患病率在女性中增长最快,这凸显了针对性别的预防和治疗策略的必要性.
- 高静脉压仍然是一个关键的风险因素;未来的努力必须针对性别,年龄和地区差异,以减轻中风负担和不平等.
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