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在中国河北省的生态系统碳储存的时空变化和多场景模拟

Lin-Yun Li¹, Lu Chen¹, Meng-Juan Han²

¹Ministry of Social and Ecological Civilization, Party School of Hebei Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China (Hebei Academy of Governance), Shi-jiazhuang 050000, China.

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology

|May 18, 2025

概括

土地利用变化,特别是将耕地转化为建筑用地,减少了河北省的碳储存. 未来的情景显示,通过生态保护和优化土地利用,碳储存的潜在增加.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
环境科学环境科学
遥感遥感遥感遥感

背景情况:

土地利用变化对陆地生态系统的碳储存有重大影响.
了解时空变化对于提高碳汇容量和实现碳中和是至关重要的.
河北省的土地使用动态和碳储存需要详细调查.

研究的目的:

评估2000年至2020年河北省土地利用变化和生态系统碳储存的时空变化.
预测未来的土地使用变化和碳储存趋势到2040年在不同的场景下.
确定碳储量下降的主要驱动因素,并提出增强战略.

主要方法:

利用InVEST-PLUS模型来评估土地使用和碳储存.
分析了2000年至2020年的土地使用数据,以确定变化和转移模式.
开发了2040年未来的土地使用场景 (自然发展,生态保护,经济发展).

主要成果:

在2000年至2020年期间,耕地,森林和草原是占主导地位的植被类型.
观察到耕地显著减少 (-7011.1平方公里),建筑用地增加 (+7479.6平方公里).
河北的生态系统碳储量从2000年到2020年减少了3.6×107,主要是由于土地转化为建筑用地. 在空间上,碳储存在西北更高,在东南更低.
未来的预测 (2040年) 显示,在所有情景下,碳储量可能会增加,从4.0×107到5.9×107不等.

结论:

耕地和草原转化为建筑用地是碳储存减少的主要驱动因素.
保护森林和草原等碳捕集资源至关重要.
优化土地利用模式以减少碳排放和保护高密度碳区域将提高封存能力.

关键词:

河北省河北省在InVEST模型中,这是一个PLUS模型.储存碳的方法是碳储存.土地使用变化土地使用变化多场景模拟多场景模拟

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