鉴定风险因素,预测冠状动脉旁路移植后多流的风险因素
Caiyun Lu1,2, Fan Jiang3, Ling Pan2
1Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University Chaoyang, Beijing 100020, China.
American journal of translational research
|May 19, 2025
概括
在冠状动脉旁路移植 (CABG) 后,发生多发性肺流 (PE). 反向传播神经网络模型有效预测PE风险,有助于早期检测和患者管理.
科学领域:
- 心血管外科心血管外科
- 胸部医学 胸部医学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 流 (PE) 是冠状动脉旁路移植 (CABG) 后的一个常见并发症.
- 识别风险因素和开发预测工具,对PE后CABG是关键的患者护理.
研究的目的:
- 在 CABG 后确定 PE 的发病率.
- 确定与CABG后PE相关的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证用于早期PE检测的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对接受CABG的1979名患者的回顾性分析,分为培训和验证组.
- 使用单变量,LASSO和多变量逻辑回归来识别风险因素.
- 开发和比较五种机器学习模型,包括反向传播神经网络 (BPNN),并进行外部验证.
主要成果:
- 在CABG后3天内,PE发生率为71.0%.
- 独立的危险因素包括BMI,动脉狭窄,术后肺炎,通风持续时间,血液损失,手术时间和射出分数.
- BPNN模型实现了最高的预测性能 (AUC 0.828培训,0.751内部验证,0.737外部验证).
结论:
- 成功开发了一种经过验证的CABG后PE预测模型.
- BPNN模型显示了早期风险分层的强大歧视力.
- 这种工具可以帮助临床医生识别高风险患者,以便及时进行干预.
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