主体传染性和易感性之间的异质性和相关性可以极大地影响流行病的动态
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|May 19, 2025
概括
主体易感性和疾病传播之间的相关性显著影响流行病的规模和可能性. 积极的相关性会扩大主要的流行病,而消极的相关性会减少它们,甚至会影响像mopox.com这样的疾病动态.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 宿主在传播和易感性方面的异质性会单独影响疾病的传播.
- 这些异质性的综合效应及其相关性仍未得到充分研究.
- 现有的研究在很大程度上忽视了可传播性和易感性之间的相关性的影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查同时存在的宿主异质性在传播和易感性方面如何影响疾病动态.
- 探索传染性和易感性之间的正负相关性的影响.
- 填补疾病建模中相关性对研究不足的影响的知识空白.
主要方法:
- 进行了系统的文献审查,以评估对应关系的研究.
- 开发和分析了一个基于个体的随机SIR模型,包含异质性和灵活的相关性.
- 将SEIR模型应用于纽约市的真实世界mopox疫情数据.
主要成果:
- 传染性和易感性之间的正相关性导致更大,更快,更有可能发生重大流行病.
- 与非相关的情景相比,负相关会导致较小和不太可能的大流行.
- 敏感性的异质性,当与可传播性正相关时,可以增加疫情的规模和可能性,特别是在小到中等的传播率下.
结论:
- 主体传染性和易感性之间的相关性是疾病动态的关键决定因素.
- 积极的相关性可以驱动主要的流行病,即使基本的生殖数量很低.
- 纽约市2022年mopox疫情的动态可靠地通过易感性和传染性之间的正相关性来解释.
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