基于随机生存森林的视网膜母细胞瘤患者的死亡率预测:使用SEER数据库的回顾性队列分析
Zuohui Zhang1, Mei Li1, Qing Guo2
1Pediatric Department 2, the First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
Translational cancer research
|May 19, 2025
概括
这项研究使用SEER数据开发了用于视网膜母细胞瘤 (RB) 预后的预测随机生存森林 (RSF) 模型. 该模型准确地预测了患者的结果,阶段,M阶段和T阶段是关键的预后因素.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 视网母细胞瘤 (RB) 缺乏验证的预测模型来预测患者的预后.
- 对RB的预后因素需要进一步调查,以指导临床实践.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个预测性随机生存森林 (RSF) 模型,用于视网膜母细胞瘤 (RB) 患者的预后.
- 确定影响RB患者结果的关键预后因素.
- 为RB的诊断和治疗提供数据驱动的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库的577名RB患者 (2000-2019) 的数据.
- 开发并验证了一个随机生存森林 (RSF) 模型,使用7:3的培训/验证分割.
- 使用C指数,校准曲线和AUC进行死亡率预测的评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 该RSF模型显示出高预测准确度,C指数值为0.9803 (培训) 和0.9122 (验证).
- 对于3,5年和10年死亡率预测的曲线下面面积 (AUC) 值在两个队列中都始终很高.
- 确定的主要预后因素包括阶段,M阶段和T阶段.
结论:
- 通过使用SEER数据,成功建立了用于视网膜母细胞瘤预后的有效RSF模型.
- 该模型利用易于使用的变量,提供卓越的预测性能.
- 阶段,M阶段和T阶段是评估高风险RB患者预后的关键指标.
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