在评估中将概率与定性确定度指标结合起来
Casey Helgeson1, Richard Bradley2, Brian Hill3
1Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, 2217 Earth and Engineering Sciences Building, University Park, PA 16802 USA.
Climatic change
|May 19, 2025
概括
本研究阐明了政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 报告中概率和信心指标之间的关系. 这提高了气候变化评估的数学一致性和可用性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 风险评估 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 使用校准语言来传达科学确定性.
- 国际气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 报告的一个挑战是不同确定性指标 (如概率和信心) 之间的模两可.
- 这种模糊性影响了IPCC发现的数学一致性和下游应用.
研究的目的:
- 澄清IPCC第五次评估报告 (2013) 中使用的概率和信心指标之间的关系.
- 增强跨多个IPCC发现的数学一致性.
- 提高IPCC不确定性评估的可用性,用于建模和决策分析.
主要方法:
- 对IPCC报告中确定程度的评估和沟通框架的分析.
- 检查第五次评估报告中概率和信心的具体指标.
- 制定一项提案,以澄清这些指标之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 该研究提出了一个更清晰的定义,概率和信心指标之间的关系.
- 拟议的框架旨在减少IPCC不确定性沟通中的模两可.
- 这种澄清预计将有利于数学一致性和下游应用.
结论:
- 澄清概率和信心指标之间的关系对于稳健的气候变化评估至关重要.
- 拟议的方法支持IPCC目前和未来的不确定性评估实践.
- 提高清晰度提高了IPCC调查结果对政策和决策的有用性.
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