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我们能预测晚期慢性病老年患者的死亡率吗?
Angela Chou1,2,3, Sanjay Farshid1,3, Mark A Brown1,2
1University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Internal medicine journal
|May 19, 2025
概括
现有的预后工具显示,晚期慢性病 (CKD) 的老年患者的表现不佳. 需要新的工具来准确预测这个特定人群的结果.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 老年病的医生 老年病的医生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 晚期慢性病 (CKD) 患者需要预后信息.
- 目前的预测工具由于适用性不清楚,因此不被广泛使用,特别是在老年人中.
研究的目的:
- 验证现有的预后工具,以预测晚期CKD的老年患者的死亡率.
- 在这个人群中评估象牙,施密特和科恩模型的表现.
主要方法:
- 追溯验证队列研究,对387名65岁以上的4期或5期CKD患者进行了追溯验证队列研究 (2009-2018).
- 使用AUC和Hosmer-Lemeshow统计学校准评估的区分能力.
- 通过使用Nagalkerke R-squared.评估全球业绩.
主要成果:
- 象牙和施密特模型显示差异差别 (c-统计0.617和0.60).
- 这两种模型都显示出合理的校准.
- 科恩模型的整体预测值很差.
结论:
- 目前的预后工具对于晚期CKD的老年人来说是不理想的.
- 需要进一步的研究来开发一个针对这个人群量身定制的预后工具.
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