在已知和未检测到的SARS-CoV-2感染后,基于症状概况预测长期后果的风险工具
Rieke Baumkötter1,2, Simge Yilmaz1,2, Julian Chalabi1
1Preventive Cardiology and Preventive Medicine, Center for Cardiology, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Langenbeckstr. 1, 55131, Mainz, Germany.
European journal of epidemiology
|May 19, 2025
概括
感染SARS-CoV-2后的长期症状很常见,影响已知感染的36.4%. 开发了机器学习工具,以预测和诊断后COVID综合征 (PCS) 的风险和存在.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 神经学 神经学
背景情况:
- 后COVID综合征 (PCS) 提出了一个重大挑战,在SARS-CoV-2感染后,持续的症状影响了个人.
- 了解已知和未检测到的SARS-CoV-2感染的长期后果对于有效的患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了分析SARS-CoV-2感染后的长期症状,无论感染检测状态如何.
- 开发和验证基于机器学习的工具,用于COVID后综合征的风险和诊断评估.
主要方法:
- 一项基于人口的研究 (古堡COVID-19研究),涉及系统的SARS-CoV-2查和标准化的症状采访.
- 强大的波桑回归模型被用来比较感染和对照组之间的症状频率.
- 机器学习技术被用来创建预测和诊断得分,在独立队列中进行前性验证.
主要成果:
- 在已知的SARS-CoV-2感染中,长期症状的患病率为36.4%,在未知的感染中为25.0%,在对照组中为28.1%.
- 已知的感染与明显更高的嗅觉/味觉障碍,遗忘,注意力困难,平衡问题和呼吸障碍的报告有关.
- 风险得分达到0.74 (培训) 和0.72 (验证) 的交叉验证AUC;诊断得分达到0.66 (培训) 和0.64 (验证).
结论:
- 有或没有SARS-CoV-2感染的人报告了持续的症状,但特定的症状是由于后COVID综合征.
- 数据驱动的风险和诊断得分显示,在指导COVID后综合征的初始管理和诊断决策方面具有潜在的实用性.
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