停止国家艾滋病毒预防工作的流行病学和经济影响
1New York State Department of Health, Corning Tower, 14 th Floor, Suite 1435, Albany, NY, 12,237, USA. david.r.holtgrave@jhu.edu.
AIDS and behavior
|May 19, 2025
概括
削减艾滋病毒预防计划的资金,包括结束艾滋病毒流行 (EHE) 的努力,将使疫情恶化,导致更多的人丧生和增加医疗费用. 停止预防工作将危及到2030年消除艾滋病毒的目标.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 新闻报道显示,疾病控制和预防中心 (CDC) 的艾滋病毒预防计划,包括结束艾滋病毒流行 (EHE) 计划的潜在资金削减.
- 这种政策转变可能对国家预防艾滋病的努力和结果产生重大,不利的影响.
研究的目的:
- 估计停止国家艾滋病毒预防资金的潜在流行病学和经济后果.
- 在持续和停止预防资金的情景下,在2030年之前为艾滋病毒流行病的未来建模.
主要方法:
- 利用一种基本的传播率模型来预测与艾滋病毒相关的结果.
- 将模型输出与其他分析观点对减少艾滋病预防资金的影响进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 分析表明,结束艾滋病毒预防工作将导致疫情恶化,死亡率增加和净医疗成本上升.
- 到2030年,该国将面临与艾滋病毒相关的情况明显恶化,需要更密集,更昂贵的干预措施才能恢复目前的地位.
结论:
- 停止艾滋病毒预防资金将阻止到2030年实现艾滋病毒消除.
- 持续投资预防艾滋病毒至关重要,以避免增加疾病负担和经济成本.
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