预测未来在伊朗受气候变化影响的扎塔里亚多种植物的分布:一个MaxEnt方法
Naser Hosseini1, Hossein Mostafavi2, Mansour Ghorbanpour1
1Department of Medicinal Plants, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak University, Arak, 38156-8-8349Iran.
Integrated environmental assessment and management
|May 19, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁到像Zataria multiflora.这样的药用植物. 种类分布模型预测,由于气温上升和降雨模式的变化,息地大量丧失.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 生物地理学 生物地理学 生物地理学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球生物多样性和物种分布构成重大威胁.
- 物种分布模型 (SDM) 是评估在不断变化的气候条件下息地适应性的关键工具.
- 有价值的药用植物Zataria multiflora是伊朗牧场的特有植物,面临着可能因气候而引起的范围变化.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响Zataria多种植物分布的关键环境因素.
- 预测气候变化对物种息地适宜性的潜在影响.
- 为Zataria多种植物的保护策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用最大值模型 (MaxEnt) 进行物种分布建模.
- 利用了八个环境变量:温度,降水,太阳辐射,斜率和岩底的深度.
- 未来气候变化预测的纳入代表性度路径 (RCP).
主要成果:
- 太阳辐射,斜率,最热季度降水量 (bio17) 和最热月的最高温度 (bio5) 被确定为关键分布因素.
- 根据各种气候变化情景 (RCPs 4.5 和 8.5) 预计,在2050年和2070年期间,范围将大幅缩小.
- 预计到2070年,息地损失将从43.98%到68.10%不等.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将严重减少Zataria multiflora的可用息地.
- 现场保护策略对于保护这种有价值的药用植物至关重要.
- 需要有效的保护计划,以确保可持续管理Zataria多种植物种群.
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