对新能源乘用车的扩散模型进行研究,同时考虑产品价值
Zhongya Han1, Dongyuan Zhao2, Fengxia Sun3
1Research Base of School of Economics and Management, Wenzhou University of Technology, Wenzhou, China.
PloS one
|May 19, 2025
概括
预测新能源乘用车销量至关重要. 基于产品价值 (IBMPV) 的改进低音模型通过将产品价值整合到销售预测中,提供了更高的准确性.
科学领域:
- 汽车工程 汽车工程
- 营销科学 营销科学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 准确预测新能源乘用车 (NEPV) 销量对于战略规划和政策制定至关重要.
- 消费者对NEPV的购买决策受到产品价值的重大影响,产品价值是动态的,随着技术进步而发展.
研究的目的:
- 为NEPV开发一种新的销售预测模型,该模型包含产品价值的概念.
- 根据现有的预测方法,评估拟议模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 基于价值工程原则,为NEPV开发产品价值函数.
- 将产品价值函数集成到已建立的Bass模型中,以创建基于产品价值 (IBMPV) 的改进的Bass模型.
- 对IBMPV与Bass,Gompertz,Logistic和ARMAX模型进行比较分析,使用合适度和预测准确度指标.
主要成果:
- 与Bass,Gompertz,Logistic和ARMAX模型相比,IBMPV模型表现出优越的适合性和预测准确性.
- 在NEPV中产品价值的提高与市场潜力的指数级增长有关.
- 提高产品价值会放大外部市场因素的影响,同时减少内部产品属性的影响.
结论:
- IBMPV模型为预测NEPV销售提供了一个更准确和更合适的框架.
- 产品价值是NEPV市场扩散和销售轨迹的关键决定因素.
- 该研究提供了对产品价值在NEPV采用中的作用的定量理解,以及用于销售预测的实际工具.
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