维赫尔斯特式方程和全球人口增长的普遍模式
Agata Angelika Sojecka1, Aleksandra Drozd-Rzoska2
1Department of Marketing, University of Economics, Katowice, Poland.
PloS one
|May 19, 2025
概括
全球人口增长显示了两个截然不同的线性阶段,挑战了传统的Verhulst模型. 分析显示历史事件对人口动态产生影响,这表明需要精细的缩放方程来准确地预测全球人口.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 维尔赫尔斯特模型是人口增长的标准.
- 可持续发展的概念与人口动态有关.
- 准确的全球人口数据对于长期规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用一种新的数据准备方法分析全球人口增长模式.
- 评估Verhulst类型缩放用于描述人口变化的充分性.
- 为了确定人口"扰乱"和历史事件之间的潜在关联.
主要方法:
- 从公元前1万年到2023年的人均全球人口增长率的分析 (公式:见文本).
- 应用"反向协议"分析,涉及数据转换和调整.
- 数字过收集的数据,以创建一个最佳的数据集.
主要成果:
- 确定了两个近线性域的人口增长率变化 (700 CE1968和19682023).
- 发现使用单个参数集进行Verhulst缩放不能充分描述观察到的人口变化.
- 揭示了当地人口"骚乱"与历史/史前事件之间的联系.
结论:
- 标准的Verhulst模型可能不足以描述长期的全球人口动态.
- 精细的数据准备和分析方法对于准确的人口建模是必要的.
- 历史事件显然影响了全球人口趋势.
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