秋季军在欧洲的迁移程度和潜在的经济影响
Stelios Kartakis1, Kiran J Horrocks2, Kutay Cingiz3
1Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands. stelios.kartakis@wur.nl.
Scientific reports
|May 19, 2025
概括
秋季军虫 (FAW) 威胁着欧洲的玉米作物,可能导致每年超过9亿欧元的损失. 这种侵入性害虫对粮食安全构成重大风险,需要采取紧急的管理策略.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 侵入性物种 生态学 侵袭性物种 生态学
- 经济昆虫学 经济昆虫学
背景情况:
- 秋季军虫 (FAW), *Spodoptera frugiperda*,是一种来自美洲的破坏性入侵性害虫.
- 自2016年以来,FAW在非洲,东南亚和大洋洲迅速蔓延,严重影响了玉米生产和全球粮食安全.
- 最近在2023年在欧洲发现的FAW突显了迫切需要评估其对欧洲大陆的潜在影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查秋军虫对欧洲谷物玉米生产的迁徙能力和潜在的直接经济影响.
- 评估FAW在"无控制"情景下在欧洲的潜在分布.
- 为欧洲农业政策和准备战略提供有关这种入侵性害虫的信息.
主要方法:
- 使用了修订后的CLIMEX利基模型,包括更新的气候数据和FAW的扩展发生数据集.
- 分析了FAW在欧洲大陆的潜在分布和建立.
- 量化了在南欧成员国对谷物玉米毛利率的潜在直接经济影响.
主要成果:
- 确定了欧洲南部的重要地区,这些地区在气候上适合FAW永久建立和临时种群.
- 南欧成员国的谷物玉米毛利率预计每年可能损失高达546欧元.
- 据估计,在最坏的情况下,每年潜在的经济损失总额超过9亿欧元.
结论:
- FAW对欧洲谷物玉米产量构成重大风险,南部地区面临的威胁最大.
- 这些发现强调了需要主动管理和决策,以减轻FAW入侵的经济后果.
- 这项研究为制定有效的准备和控制策略提供了关键的见解,以应对欧洲的FAW.
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