广州甲状腺癌发病率的空间和时间分布和演变趋势,2010-2020年
Boheng Liang1, Jingjing Zhou2,3,4,5, Suixiang Wang1
1Department of Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
Endocrine
|May 19, 2025
概括
广州的甲状腺癌发病率从2010年到2020年增加了近五倍. 空间分析揭示了显著的集群和不断变化的趋势,甲状腺癌发病率的区域差异正在减少.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,甲状腺癌的发病率一直在上升.
- 了解其空间和时间分布对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析广州甲状腺癌的空间和时间分布.
- 为甲状腺癌预防和控制策略提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 时间趋势分析的连接点模型.
- ArcGIS用于层次地图和空间分布分析.
- 空间自相对应,时空扫描和标准偏差圆用于集群和趋势分析.
主要成果:
- 从2010年到2020年,年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 从2010年到2020年增加了近五倍 (每10^5增加6.46至33.15).
- 城市地区的发病率最高,但郊区和农村地区的增长速度更快,缩小了区域差异.
- 观察到显著的空间异质性和集群,城市中心和特定地区的热点;时空趋势显示从西南向东北迁移.
结论:
- 广州的甲状腺癌发病率表现出显著的空间异质性和集群.
- 发病率的区域差异正在减少.
- 观察到的时空演变与广州的城市发展政策一致.
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