韩国自杀预防政策中的自杀减少目标的可行性:来自时间序列分析的见解
Seunghyong Ryu1,2, Seon-Hwa Baek1, Min Jhon1
1Department of Psychiatry, Chonnam National University Medical School, Gwangju, Korea.
Journal of Korean medical science
|May 20, 2025
概括
韩国目前的自杀预防政策目标是到2027年达到18.2/100,000,不太可能实现. 过去的政策表现出有限的有效性,目前的趋势表明,这一比例将保持在24/100,000左右.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 心理健康政策 心理健康政策
背景情况:
- 韩国第五个预防自杀总体计划 (2023-2027) 旨在到2027年将全国自杀率从2021年的26/100,000减少到2027年的18.2/100,000.
- 本研究评估了这一雄心勃勃的降低自杀率目标的可行性.
研究的目的:
- 评估朝鲜在2027年实现全国自杀率降低目标的可行性.
- 分析以前的自杀预防政策对国家自杀率的影响.
主要方法:
- 从2011年起使用了每月自杀统计数据.
- 使用贝叶斯回归和自回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型进行中断时间序列分析.
- 从2023年到2027年进行自杀率的点预测和模拟.
主要成果:
- 间断时间序列分析没有发现与之前的"国家预防自杀行动计划" (2018-2022) 相关的显著自杀减少.
- 模型预测表明,自杀率可能会在2027年保持在24/100,000左右.
- 大多数模拟表明,2027年的自杀率将无法实现政策目标18.2/100,000.
结论:
- 根据目前的趋势和过去的政策无效性,韩国2027年减少自杀率的目标似乎无法实现.
- 未来的自杀预防政策需要基于证据的,可实现的,负责任的目标.
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