修改的库马拉斯瓦米季节性自回归移动平均线模型与外源回归器,用于双边界水环境数据
Aline Armanini Stefanan1, Murilo Sagrillo1, Bruna G Palm2
1Postgraduate Program in Industrial Engineering, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
新的MKSARMAX模型准确地预测有界的水环境时间序列,优于现有的水资源管理方法和预测洪水和干旱的方法.
科学领域:
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析.
- 环境建模环境建模
- 统计预测 统计预测
背景情况:
- 传统的高斯时间序列模型与有限的数据和不对称的分布作斗争.
- 水环境数据经常表现出这些特征,限制了模型的适用性.
- 准确的预测对于有效的水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入具有边界支持的时间序列的MKSARMAX模型.
- 为了证明它在水环境数据的高斯式模型和其他模型上的优势.
- 评估其在预测水量方面的表现.
主要方法:
- 在MKSARMAX模型中,使用了修改后的Kumaraswamy分布和动态结构.
- 它包含季节性,自回归/移动平均值条款,外源变量和链接函数.
- 参数估计使用有条件的最大概率,通过定量残留物进行诊断分析.
主要成果:
- 蒙特卡洛模拟证实了模型的有限样本性能.
- MKSARMAX显著优于βSARMA,SARMAX,霍尔特-温特斯和KARMA模型的表现.
- 对MAE,RMSE和MAPE进行水量预测的实质性减少.
结论:
- MKSARMAX模型为有限的时间序列提供了灵活而准确的方法.
- 它显示了改善水资源管理策略的巨大潜力.
- 它的早期预测准确度对于预测洪水和干旱等极端事件非常有价值.
更多相关视频
04:35Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach
Published on: July 3, 2020
12:26Integrating Remote Sensing with Species Distribution Models; Mapping Tamarisk Invasions Using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling SAHM
Published on: October 11, 2016
相关概念视频
Multiple Regression
Farmers can use multiple regression to determine the crop yield based on more than one factor, such as water availability, fertilizer, soil properties, etc. Here, the crop yield is the response or dependent variable as it depends on the other independent variables. The analysis requires the construction of a scatter plot...
Regression Analysis
In regression analysis, a regression equation is determined based on the line of best fit– a line that best fits the data points plotted in a graph. This line is also called the regression line. The algebraic equation for the regression line is called the regression equation. It is represented as:
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Algorithms for Numerical Problem Solving
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
Residuals and Least-Squares Property
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
