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长期的水质模拟和驱动因素的识别在流域规模内,使用机器学习
Mingxuan Zhao1, Chunzi Ma2, Hanxiao Zhang3
1Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.
Journal of contaminant hydrology
|May 20, 2025
概括
中国河流域的水质显示出混合的趋势. 虽然大多数参数有所改善,但由于农业和城市活动,受气候和地理因素的影响,总气增加.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水质管理水质管理
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 中国的地表水质改善正在进行中,但区域性挑战依然存在.
- 河流域是一个重要的工业和农业地区,尽管有管理工作,但水质不稳定.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较数据驱动的模型填补历史水质数据缺口 (1980-2022) 在河流域.
- 识别和量化影响水质趋势的驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 评估随机森林 (RF),支持向量机回归 (SVR),K-最近邻居 (KNN),堆叠,长短期记忆 (LSTM) 和卷积-LSTM模型用于数据归算.
- 利用夏普利添加式扩展模型 (SHAP) 来评估各种因素对水质参数的影响.
- 分析了总 (TN),氨 (NH3-N),总 (TP),化学氧气需求 (COD_Cr,COD_Mn) 和电导性 (E) 的长期水质数据.
主要成果:
- 随机森林模型证明了水质数据的优异预测性能.
- 从1980年到2022年,总 (TN) 增加了大约20%;其他参数受到控制.
- 人类活动 (农业,城市地区),气候因素 (极端降雨,降水,温度) 和地理因素 (土壤,坡度) 显著影响了水质.
结论:
- 数据驱动的模型,特别是RF,对于重建历史水质数据是有效的.
- 需要有针对性的管理策略来应对由人类活动驱动的不断上升的TN水平.
- 考虑到人为,气候和地理因素的综合方法对于有效的流域水质管理至关重要.
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