在2022年疫情爆发期间,秘鲁的Mpox传播动态
M Gabriela Soto-Cabezas1, Adrián Vásquez-Mejía1, Martha Calderón1
1Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú.
概括
秘鲁的2022年mopox疫情主要影响与男性发生性关系的年轻男性 (MSM),HIV共感染增加了住院的风险. 传输动态显示了最初的指数级增长,随后下降.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 由于病例广泛蔓延,Mpox (麻疹) 在2022年7月宣布公共卫生紧急情况.
- 了解传播和住院因素对于疫情控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估2022年疫情期间秘鲁的mopox传播动态.
- 确定与mopox住院相关的因素.
主要方法:
- 使用国家监测数据 (CDC-秘鲁) 的横截面研究.
- 数学建模以估计繁殖数量 (R0,Rt),疫情持续时间,潜伏期,恢复期和序列间隔.
- 普森回归用于识别住院风险因素.
主要成果:
- 报告了3,677例mopox病例 (2022年7月至12月),主要是男性 (96.3%),包括与男性发生性关系的男性 (MSM) (75.0%) 和艾滋病毒感染者 (55.6%).
- 基本繁殖数 (R0) 估计为2.37;指数增长阶段持续7周,传播在14周后下降.
- 住院率为5.2%;艾滋病毒感染与住院风险增加有显著的关联.
结论:
- 2022年秘鲁的mopox疫情不成比例地影响了年轻的MSM,艾滋病毒共感染的流行率显著.
- 艾滋病毒共感染是mopox住院的主要风险因素.
- 疫情呈现出快速初步增长的明显模式,随后传播的显著减少.
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