探索中国实现碳中和的途径,基于一个动态空间的德宾定量回归模型
Danqing Chen1, Shuangshuang Li2
1School of Computer Science and Mathematics, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou, 351008, People's Republic of China. dq_1523@126.com.
Scientific reports
|May 20, 2025
概括
实现碳中和需要了解其驱动因素. 这项研究表明,环境治理和经济增长对中国的碳中和性表现具有复杂的,量子依赖的效应.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 空间计量经济学空间计量
背景情况:
- 碳中和对于可持续的未来至关重要,需要对其驱动因素进行研究.
- 以前使用平均回归的研究忽视了碳中和驱动因素的异质性.
- 了解这些驱动因素对于有效的生态系统保护战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了引入一个新的动态空间德宾定量回归 (DSDQR) 模型.
- 检查环境治理压力,经济增长及其相互作用对碳中和性能的影响.
- 为开发差异化脱碳战略提供经验证据.
主要方法:
- 开发和应用一个动态空间德宾定量回归 (DSDQR) 模型.
- 对于不同量子值的独立变量的边际效应公式的推导.
- 对2011-2022年中国各省份数据的分析.
主要成果:
- 碳中和性能表现出显著的时间,空间和路径依赖性.
- 环境治理压力表现出不同的短期 (抑制) 和长期 (积极) 影响,取决于量.
- 经济增长通常阻碍碳中和,除了COVID-19后高量子省份的长期积极影响外.
- 治理压力与经济增长之间的相互作用效应在短期内是积极的,但长期在高量的情况下是负面的.
结论:
- 碳中和性表现在各省和发展阶段是异质的.
- 政策干预必须考虑到环境治理和经济增长的量级特异性影响.
- 为了实现国家碳中和目标,不同的脱碳战略是必不可少的.
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