使用最小平方线Biresponse非参数负二项式回归模型来建模艾滋病毒和艾滋病病例数量的方法
Arip Ramadan1,2, Nur Chamidah3,4, I Nyoman Budiantara5
1Doctoral Study Program of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Airlangga University, Surabaya 60115, Indonesia.
MethodsX
|May 21, 2025
概括
一个新的统计模型,LS-Spline BNNBR,更好地预测受早期婚姻和避孕药使用影响的HIV/AIDS病例. 调查结果表明,早婚增加和避孕药使用减少与印尼艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例减少有关.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 相关响应变量在统计建模中存在分析挑战.
- 了解影响HIV和艾滋病病例的因素对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入和验证一种新的统计建模方法,LS-Spline BNNBR,用于分析预测因子和相关反应之间的功能关系.
- 将拟议的方法应用于在印度尼西亚受早期婚姻和避孕药使用者影响的艾滋病毒和艾滋病病例模型.
主要方法:
- 开发了LS-Spline BNNBR (双响应非参数负二项回归) 使用最小平方线.
- 将LS-Spline BNNBR与经典的OLS-BPNBR (普通最小方形对应对称负二项回归) 进行比较.
主要成果:
- 与OLS-BPNBR (7.993935) 相比,LS-Spline BNNBR实现了较低的偏差值 (7.542334),这表明了更好的预测适应性.
- 模型估计表明,早年婚姻的增加和避孕药使用者的减少与印度尼西亚艾滋病毒和艾滋病病例的减少有关.
结论:
- 拟议的LS-Spline BNNBR方法为复杂的相关响应变量提供了更好的预测准确性.
- 这些发现为制定有针对性的公共卫生政策提供了科学基础,以控制印度尼西亚的艾滋病毒和艾滋病流行率.
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