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Kevin Black¹, Andrew McCullagh², John Redmond²

¹FERS Ltd, Kilberry, Navan, Co Meath, Ireland. kevin.black@fers.ie.

Carbon balance and management

|May 21, 2025

概括

由于土壤排放和收获增加,爱尔兰森林正在从碳汇转变为碳源. 实施森林管理变化,比如延长转换年龄,对于减缓气候变化至关重要,但可能无法实现2030年的目标.

科学领域:

林业科学林业科学
气候变化缓解减缓气候变化缓解减缓
温室气体 (GHG) 排放分析

背景情况:

爱尔兰的森林正在从温室气体净吸收者转变为净排放者.
这种转变是由有机土壤排放,采伐增加和森林年龄结构变化所驱动的.
目前的趋势与2030年和2050年的国家和欧盟气候政策目标相冲突.

研究的目的:

评估国家森林政策措施对爱尔兰森林温室气体概况的影响.
评估不同森林管理策略的短期和长期缓解潜力.
通过林业干预来确定实现国家和欧盟气候目标的可行性.

主要方法:

使用了加拿大森林服务局 (CBM-CFS3) 的重新校准的碳预算模型.
分析了基于当前和额外的森林管理措施 (WEM和WAM) 的预测场景.
评估对温室气体排放的影响,森林碳吸收能力和与政策目标的协调.

主要成果:

如果不进行调整,爱尔兰森林将在2070年以后仍然是净排放源.
维持森林沉没需要采伐率超过75%的净年增量,实现植林目标,并增加种植年龄.
增加森林和减少森林砍伐对2030年目标的短期影响最小.

结论:

延长旋转年龄和降低收获水平提供了最显著的短期气候减缓效益,负边际减缓成本.
即使有加强的森林措施 (WAM),爱尔兰也不太可能实现2030年国家和欧盟的土地使用,土地使用变化和林业 (LULUCF) 目标.
森林沉降能力的下降对实现短期气候目标构成重大挑战.

关键词:

森林化是为了树木的生长.碳库存变化碳库存变化延长的旋转年龄延长的旋转年龄森林管理和森林政策模型场景模型场景

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