预测尼泊尔五岁以下儿童死亡人数的统计模型
Madhav Kumar Bhusal1, Shankar Prasad Khanal1
1Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.
PloS one
|May 21, 2025
概括
在尼泊尔,母亲吸烟,分娩顺序和分娩间隔缩短增加了5岁以下儿童死亡率. 获得管道井水与减少儿童死亡率有关,突出了干预的关键因素.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 尼泊尔在减少五岁以下儿童死亡率方面面临挑战,阻碍了实现可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 的进展.
- 基于证据的干预措施对于保护新生儿生命和解决儿童死亡率至关重要.
- 在尼泊尔,五岁以下儿童的死亡率仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个预测尼泊尔五岁以下儿童死亡率的统计模型.
- 确定与母亲经历的五岁以下死亡率相关的关键因素.
- 为减少儿童死亡率提供有针对性的干预信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了2022年尼泊尔人口和健康调查 (NDHS) 的数据.
- 采用零膨胀负二项式回归 (ZINBR) 模型来分析五岁以下的死亡人数.
- 考虑的母性,父性,社会经济,儿童,环境和医疗保健利用因素.
主要成果:
- 8.6%的母亲报告至少有一次5岁以下儿童死亡.
- 有意义的预测因素包括生态区域 (山区风险更高),母亲吸烟,有史以来出生儿童总数 (CEB) 更高,先前出生间隔更短,出生顺序更高.
- 来自管井的饮用水与五岁以下儿童死亡率的减少有关.
结论:
- 生态区域,母亲吸烟,总CEB,饮用水源,出生间隔和出生顺序是五岁以下儿童死亡率的关键预测因素.
- 在尼泊尔的特定地区,高低的五岁以下儿童死亡率阻碍了整体减少的努力.
- 加强医疗保健服务,改善生活质量和实施健康教育对于减少儿童死亡率至关重要.
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